Buzz Man T-Shirt Giveaway

There will be one winner of the Buzz Man t-shirt on offer. In order to participate in this promotion and therefore be eligible to win the shirt, you must agree to all the below terms and conditions.

1.     Entry Deadline: The deadline to have met all the entry requirements below is 14:00 GMT 22/01/2019.

2.     Eligibility: this competition is only open to all United Kingdom residents who are aged 18 years old or over. Please note only 1 entry is allowed per person.

3.     Entry Requirements:

Reply to the tweet relating to the competition with:

  • Which 3 players will finish in the top 3 players in the 22 January Media Rankings on Football Index.

  • Which size T-Shirt they would like.

4.      Winner Selection: We will randomly select one of the winning entries and contact them to confirm they have met the 2 requirements above. The winner will be contacted on Twitter and will need to confirm their Postal address for the prize to be sent to as well as confirming they meet all the criteria detailed above within 24 hours of receiving the message.  You also agree to being mentioned on Twitter as the winner and to tweet a picture of the prize upon receipt.

5. The Prizes:

One Buzz Man T-Shirt in the size of your choice (if we don’t have the size in stock we will do our best to get it for you).

Buzz man.jpeg

We will also only be liable to Postage & Packaging if your address is eligible for standard UK delivery.

6. We reserve the right to make reasonable amendments to this competition as we see fit.

Football Index Edge T-Shirt Giveaway

T-Shirt Giveaway

There will be one winner of each of the four t-shirts on offer. In order to participate in this promotion and therefore be eligible to win the shirt, you must agree to all the below terms and conditions.

1.     Entry Deadline: The deadline to have met all the entry requirements below is 23:59 GMT 13/01/2019.

2.     Eligibility: this competition is only open to all United Kingdom residents who are aged 18 years old or over. Please note only 1 entry is allowed per person.

3.     Entry Requirements:

1.     Retweet our Twitter post that outlines this competition.

2.     Reply to the tweet commenting on which T-shirt you would like to be eligible to win.

4.      Winner Selection: We will randomly select one of the qualifying entries for each t-shirt and contact them to confirm they have met the 2 requirements above. The winner will be contacted on Twitter and will need to confirm their Postal address for the prize to be sent to as well as confirming they meet all the criteria detailed above within 24 hours of receiving the message.  The winner will also need to agree being mentioned on Twitter as the winner and to tweet a picture of the prize upon receipt.

5. The Prizes:

You may enter the competition for one of the following four prizes:

1. Buzz Man (Choice of M,L or XL)

1. Buzz Man (Choice of M,L or XL)

2. Flipper Rat (Large only)

2. Flipper Rat (Large only)

3. Lemonade Salesman (Large only)

3. Lemonade Salesman (Large only)

4. Pump & Dump (Large Only)

4. Pump & Dump (Large Only)

We will also only be liable to Postage & Packaging if your address is eligible for standard UK delivery.

6. We reserve the right to make reasonable amendments to this competition as we see fit.

Football Index Guide Podcast

Last week we had the pleasure of being invited onto Football Index Guide's podcast. I'm sure 99% of you already are already familiar with his content but in case you aren't here are the links to the various mediums he releases his great content on:

Youtube

Twitter 

Podcast

What we Discussed

We discussed a variety of topics on the podcast and we thought it would be good to give you some market data on the topics we discussed. 

How the Market has Changed this Season

The growth of the Amount of Money in the Index

In the podcast, we refer to the estimated amount of money in the Index doubling since the beginning of April 2018. We must stress this is a very rough estimate based on the assumption that prices have risen a penny over their IPO price for every 100 issued shares currently in the market. This graph shows both the daily and overall % growth in the market since the beginning of April.

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 18.10.20.png

Match Day Price Changes by Performance Buzz Scores and Season

We also discussed how match day prices this season haven't changed much when players haven't acheived a high score but have increased more when they have.

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 18.14.57.png

How Home Advantage and the Quality of Opposition Affect Performance Buzz

Home or Away Performance Buzz Dividends

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 18.34.00.png

Performance Buzz Averages by Opposition

Here are some Performance Buzz averages when playing against some of the best and worst teams when it comes to conceding Performance Buzz points. We also mentioned in the podcast how we have developed a model for estimating individual Performance Buzz Scores. We found from the model that the opposition and whether the game is due to be played at home or away combined is a greater predictor than the individual's Performance Buzz Average.  Of course the best model that we use looks at all 3 variables.

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 18.47.15.png

The Best Performance Buzz Metric: Averages or Peak Scores

In the podcast, we debate our viewpoints on this, here are just a few of the graphs we use when evaluating a player's Performance Buzz credentials.

Performance Buzz Averages

This is a screenshot of the Performance Buzz Average graph that is available to all our Premium Members (Free 30 day trial is currently available for new members on both our Monthly and Yearly memberships and you can cancel at any time!). You can also view the distribution of all their Performance Buzz scores by hovering over their averages.

In the podcast, we mention how looking at Performance Buzz averages can be especially helpful when choosing players for Single Performance Buzz Matchdays. We have made a free to view Fixture Calendar for any traders who want to research fixtures well in advance: footballindexedge.com/football-index-fixtures/

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 19.05.43.png

What are Standard Deviations and How Can They be Useful When Interpreting Performance Buzz Scores?

This is probably the stats question we get asked most so here is our answer!

It’s a measure of how much each player’s scores vary away from their average score. Higher is generally better as it means they are more likely to occasionally score a much higher score than they normally do. One way I like to look at is if you add their average to their STDDEV you will get a score they will likely score over in roughly 1 in 6 games. If you add their average to 2 times their STDDEV you will get appropriately their highest score they will score in a season.

Performance Buzz Peak Scores

This is a screenshot of one of the Peak Score graphs we have available to our Premium Members.

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 19.25.42.png

Future Trends?

We were asked about which trends we think we may see over the next few weeks in terms of the types of players which will see the largest price increases. We discussed dual MB and PB players, penalty takers and Champions League and Europa League players as potential answers to this. The graph below shows the largest dividend winners since PB was introduced and splits their returns between their MB and PB returns.

Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 21.02.44.png





Where can I Listen to the Podcast?

Football Index Guide makes all of his podcasts available on Fireside, Itunes and Spotify. Here are links to the podcast:

Fireside

iTunes

Spotify

 

Performance Buzz Dividend Predictions 2018/2019

ABOUT

We have now completed our Performance Buzz simulations for the season ahead. However, one problem with only using historical data for these predictions is that it will always at least partially fail to take into account certain variables such as a change in manager. It is also important to take into account when purchasing players other traders opinions on who will do well, as this will likely have a large bearing on price changes over the next month or so. We decided to assemble 8 of the most experienced traders in the Football Index community, equipped them with a wealth of player data and asked them for their predictions on how much each player is going to earn in dividends across the season. We suggested a total of £60 for the total of all predictions. You can also find below some stats to help you make your own predictions.

THE PREDICTORS

FOOTBALL INDEX GUIDE

Twitter: @_FIGuide

The man who needs no introduction! “The FIG” started trading in January 2016 and has made incredible profits ever since. Last year he started creating helpful YouTube videos that help both novice and experienced traders alike.  He also runs a weekly podcast where each episode he is joined by either an experienced trader, football expert or even someone from Football Index HQ.

FOOTBALL INDEX SOTD

Twitter: @footballindexsd

Runs one of the largest and most active Twitter accounts in the Football Index community. SOTD, a statistician by trade, also started trading in Jan 2016 and can now boast profits of over £85,000. On FootballIndexEdge.com he brings his statistical expertise in running complex models and simulations and applies these techniques to the Football Stock market.

FOOTBALL INDEX RC

Twitter: @FootballIndexRC

Another person who made a Football Index Twitter account back in the days before it was a rite of passage for every new user. RC, widely regarded as one of the funniest and most helpful accounts in the FI community, announced a couple of months ago that he will be cutting back on the Index. However, a glance at his twitter page would suggest otherwise with him now tweeting more than ever!

SG

Twitter: @sigaskell

One of 3 traders on the panel with a portfolio worth over £100,000! SG is renowned for his “all in” approach to trading when he spots the right opportunity on a player. However, he has decided that he wants to spread his portfolio for the start of the season and get ready to act on the players that shine from a Performance Buzz perspective early in the season.  

ROSS DYER

Twitter: @DyerMarzio

One of the largest Football Index traders on the platform and has been for as long as we can remember. Dominated the now defunct Trader of the Month Competition, so much so that Football Index had to create a new rule to stop him winning every month! Like every good trader is adaptable, with him now boasting a portfolio of talented youngsters but he’ll be quick to tell you he “knows what he’s looking for in PB players”.

BUZZING PAUL

Twitter: @BuzzingPaul

Joining in October 2017, Paul was the last of our experts to join Football Index. An accountant by day he was quick to bring his number-crunching prowess to the Football Index community. He now tweets daily Performance Buzz predictions, snippets of Performance Buzz data and recently posted an article on our Blog.

FOOTBALL INDEX AS

Twitter: @FootballIndexAS

AS started trading in May 2017 and almost immediately established himself as one of the mainstays of the Football Index community. That summer AS provided traders with their first real taste of player data ahead of the launch of Performance Buzz. Renowned for his excel skills you can now find him tweeting about Performance Buzz dividend returns as well as informing you on which players are due to be IPO’d the following day.  

FOOTBALL INDEX BUZZ

Twitter: FootballindexLM

Another trader who has been creating Football Index content for as long as I can remember. His twitter feed is filled with stats, polls and insights from one of the most experienced members of the Football Index community. He writes regular blogs for Football Index, 90MAAT and has recently started a Football Index newsletter together with @footyindexLDN and @_FIGuide.

THE RESULTS

AVERAGE PREDICTIONS

These results show the average dividend across the predictions. Hover to view each traders prediction.

MAXIMUM PREDICTION

These results take the highest prediction across the trader's estimates. Hover to view each traders prediction.

MAKE YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS

If you would like a template to make your own predictions for the coming season email info@footballindexedge.com to receive your free copy. If would like us to then add your predictions to this article, please let us know!
 

PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP: FREE 30-DAY TRIAL!

We are now offering all new member's a 30-day free trial to our Premium Membership. With the new season almost underway this is the perfect time to get your portfolio Performance Buzz ready and having access to the millions of data points that the Premium Membership affords you is the perfect assistant! On the Member's Blog article version of this article, you can find all the tools you need to add your own Performance Buzz predictions.

We currently have 2 Premium Membership options and you can sign up today by clicking on the links below:

Monthly Membership (Free for 30 days, then £6.48 per month)

Yearly Membership (Free for 30 days, then £60 per year)

 

Performance Buzz Predictions for the 2018/2019 Season

About

We have now completed our Performance Buzz simulations for the season ahead. However, one problem with only using historical data for these predictions is that it will always at least partially fail to take into account certain variables such as a change in manager. It is also important to take into account when purchasing players other traders opinions on who will do well, as this will likely have a large bearing on price changes over the next month or so. We decided to assemble 8 of the most experienced and trusted traders in the Football Index community, equipped them with a wealth of player data and asked them for their predictions on how much each player is going to earn in dividends across the season. We will be presenting each of their predictions this week and hope that collectively they unearth some gems for you to look into further. We also believe it will be useful to get a variety of opinions on some of the bigger players such as how will Ronaldo's move to Juventus affect his Performance Buzz returns. The final results will be presented as averages across the predictions and you will also be able to see a breakdown with each traders expected PB return for every player.

The Experts

Football Index Guide

Twitter: @_FIGuide

The man who needs no introduction! “The FIG” started trading in January 2016 and has made incredible profits ever since. Last year he started creating helpful YouTube videos that help both novice and experienced traders alike.  He also runs a weekly podcast where each episode he is joined by either an experienced trader, football expert or even someone from Football Index HQ.

Football Index SOTD

Twitter: @footballindexsd

Runs one of the largest and most active Twitter accounts in the Football Index community. SOTD, a statistician by trade, also started trading in Jan 2016 and can now boast profits of over £85,000. On FootballIndexEdge.com he brings his statistical expertise in running complex models and simulations and applies these techniques to the Football Stock market.

Football Index RC

Twitter: @FootballIndexRC

Another person who made a Football Index Twitter account back in the days before it was a rite of passage for every new user. RC, widely regarded as one of the funniest and most helpful accounts in the FI community, announced a couple of months ago that he will be cutting back on the Index. However, a glance at his twitter page would suggest otherwise with him now tweeting more than ever!

SG

Twitter: @sigaskell

One of 3 traders on the panel with a portfolio worth over £100,000! SG is renowned for his “all in” approach to trading when he spots the right opportunity on a player. However, he has decided that he wants to spread his portfolio for the start of the season and get ready to act on the players that shine from a Performance Buzz perspective early in the season.  

Ross Dyer

Twitter: @DyerMarzio

One of the largest Football Index traders on the platform and has been for as long as we can remember. Dominated the now defunct Trader of the Month Competition, so much so that Football Index had to create a new rule to stop him winning every month! Like every good trader is adaptable, with him now boasting a portfolio of talented youngsters but he’ll be quick to tell you he “knows what he’s looking for in PB players”.

Buzzing Paul

Twitter: @BuzzingPaul

Joining in October 2017, Paul was the last of our experts to join Football Index. An accountant by day he was quick to bring his number-crunching prowess to the Football Index community. He now tweets daily Performance Buzz predictions, snippets of Performance Buzz data and recently posted an article on our Blog.

Football Index AS

Twitter: @FootballIndexAS

AS started trading in May 2017 and almost immediately established himself as one of the mainstays of the Football Index community. That summer AS provided traders with their first real taste of player data ahead of the launch of Performance Buzz. Renowned for his excel skills you can now find him tweeting about Performance Buzz dividend returns as well as informing you on which players are due to be IPO’d the following day.  

Football Index Buzz

Twitter: FootballindexLM

Another trader who has been creating Football Index content for as long as I can remember. His twitter feed is filled with stats, polls and insights from one of the most experienced members of the Football Index community. He writes regular blogs for Football Index, 90MAAT and has recently started a Football Index newsletter together with @footyindexLDN and @_FIGuide.

 

The Results

We will be releasing all the results at the following times:

7 PM Wednesday 8 August: The results will be released on our Premium Member's Blog

7 PM Thursday 9 August: The results will be released on our Free Blog

 

Premium Membership: Free 30-day Trial!

Starting today we are now offering all new member's a 30-day free trial to our Premium Membership. With the new season almost underway this is the perfect time to get your portfolio Performance Buzz ready and having access to the millions of data points that the Premium Membership affords you is the perfect assistant!

We currently have 2 Premium Membership options and you can sign up today by clicking on the links below:

Monthly Membership (Free for 30 days, then £6.48 per month)

Yearly Membership (Free for 30 days, then £60 per year)

 

Introducing RoE – Return on Experience or Old Footballers Have Dividend Potential Too

The Introduction

I’m @BuzzingPaul. I tweet daily Performance Buzz (PB) predictions and snippets of PB data that I find interesting on #FootballINDEX. Check my timeline and feel free to follow me if this sounds of interest to you.

I have been a @FootballIndexUK trader since 28th Nov and am excited to collaborate with @footballindexed. Football Index Edge is both a great PB data source and is also at the forefront of insightful research and simulations that are released as part of regular blog posts. I would like to extend my thanks to them for inviting me to blog. They offer free and paid for membership options, I highly recommend checking them out, if you haven’t already.

The Challenge

Football Index Edge have run performance buzz simulations based on the last 3 seasons of fixtures partnered with each player's historic data to determine an estimated score and variability for each player for every game day. They have then used these scores to estimate each player’s expected dividend return per season. You can find out more about the latest simulation here.

One takeaway I got from the simulation is that older players are considerably undervalued in the current market.

On the back of their analysis, I thought it would be a perfect opportunity to highlight those experienced players that:

  • have performed very well historically

  • whose PB output is unlikely to substantially diminish

and hopefully, those that, in turn

  • can give a decent dividend return for their level of experience (RoE).

The Definitions

  • Experienced = aged 30 or over

  • RoE (Return on Experience) = Simulated PB dividends / Price at time of Simulation

  • Peak Score = Percentage of scores that exceed the average positional treble PB winning score (Def = 184 ; Mid = 214; Fwd = 214)

The Caveats

Football Index Edge’s methodology does not consider the most recent transfer news; any injury news or any selection clues from the most recent friendlies.

These should be covered by using manual filters. Remember past performance isn’t always an indication of future performance. So please supplement the findings below with your own research.

The Players

Iago Aspas

Simulated RoE: 33.81%

DoB: 01/08/1987

Club: Celta Vigo (since 2015)

Average PB: 95

Max PB: 245

Peak Score: 8.7%

PB Wins: 3

Screen Shot 2018-08-01 at 14.24.03.png

 

A nice place to start. Iago Aspas should be a name familiar to you all. Since joining Celta Vigo he has scored 55 goals in 101 games and each season his goal output has increased.

He ranks as the 10th best forward in my own  PB ranking system and 6th  best in the Peak Score rankings adopted by @FootIndexLDN in his recent articles. He's also the 3rd best forward for percentage score over 200.

Screen Shot 2018-08-01 at 14.19.15.png

Celta’s transfer window has left most of last season’s squad intact. Borja Iglesias and John Guidetti have made permanent moves away from Celta this summer and have been replaced on the wage bill by Sofiane Boufal.

Antonio Mohamed becomes Aspas’s 3rd manager at Celta and may throw some doubt over Celta’s prospects. But Aspas has strong output across the board and I expect a dividend return at least on a par with last season.

Max Kruse

RoE: 20.02%

DoB: 19/03/1988

Club: Werder Bremen (since 2016)

Average PB: 88

Max PB: 227

Peak Score: 4.5%

PB Wins: 1

Screen Shot 2018-08-01 at 14.25.40.png

Max Kruse offers a much cheaper route into the experienced forward market. He has scored 21 goals in 52 games since joining Bremen from Wolfsburg.

My rankings have him as the 40th best forward and he has achieved a peak score in approximately 1/20 of the games he has played.

The return of Claudio Pizzaro to Bremen for a 4th time, alongside the signing of Davy Klassen should fill the void left by Thomas Delaney’s departure to Dortmund.

Bremen’s manager Florian Kohfeldt returns for a second season and I’m hoping that his team can provide Max Kruse with the foundation he needs to return one treble PB, a dividend payout that would represent a wonderful RoE.

Whilst Kruse is inferior to Aspas in every department, he is closer to IPO price and so feels like a marginally less risky investment.

Aleksander Kolarov

RoE: 15.84%

DoB: 10/11/1985

Club: Roma (since 2017)

Average PB: 130

Max PB: 235

Peak Score: 17.6%

PB Wins: 4

 

Aleksander Kolarov is both one of oldest players on my list and the one I am most excited to share.

He ranks 6th in my PB rankings and scored above the average PB winning score in 18% of his games last season.

Roma have had an exciting transfer window (the Malcom hijacking by Barca included). The additions of Javier Pastore, Justin Kluivert and Ante Coric show ambition. More importantly for us, academy prospect Luca Pelligrini (19) looks to be the only back-up left sided defender, so the Kolarov monopoly at left back should continue.

Whilst it would be naive to expect another Champions League semi-final run. Eusabio di Francesco’s second season in charge should provide the perfect platform for Kolarov to match his 4 PB wins from last season.

Filipe Luis

RoE: 13.26%

DoB: 09/08/1985

Club: Atleti (since 2015)

Average PB: 133

Max PB: 191

Peak Score: 10.0%

PB Wins: 1

Screen Shot 2018-08-01 at 14.32.57.png

Filipe Luis is both the oldest player on my list and the one with most chequered recent injury record. He spent 139 days injured last season, 48 days of which was due to a fractured fibula that he returned from at the World Cup.

In spite of this, last season  he managed 20 appearances and earnt 22nd place in my defender rankings. He returned an average winning PB score in 1/10 appearances.

Atletico Madrid have invested in youth this summer with the additions of Thomas Lemar, Rodri and Gelson Martins. World Cup winner Lucas Hernandez  remains but should continue as back-up across the left back and centre back positions.

Diego Simeone continues unabated as the best defensive manager in club football. I’m sceptical about how Lopetegui will adapt at a Ronaldo-less Real Madrid and Barca had enough luck when they narrowly missed out on going undefeated in the season just gone. An injury free run and another long European adventure for Atleti make me hopeful that Filipe Luis should return more dividends than the simulation expects and a huge RoE.

Alejandro Gomez

RoE: 12.46%

DoB: 15/02/1988

Club: Atalanta (since 2014)

Average PB: 106

Max PB: 231

Peak Score: 3.4%

PB Wins: 2

Screen Shot 2018-08-01 at 14.34.57.png

I have had a strong affinity to Alejandro Gomez ever since he was the first player I tweeted about in November 2017. Since his arrival at Atalanta he has scored 32 goals in 128 appearances and dominates all of their set pieces.

He ranks as last season  28th best midfielder and has historically scored above average PB winning scores in about 1/30 occasions.

Atalanta has had an unspectacular summer transfer window. The sum total of which should lead to a similar starting XI next season.

If Atalanta can secure Europa League qualification again under the tutelage of Gian Piero Gasperini I’m confident that Gomez should return a couple of dividends and a respectable RoE next season.

Conclusion

Irrespective of Football Index Edge’s simulations, a quick scan of player prices indicate that older players are undervalued when compared to their younger counterparts. At Lyon, Bertrand Troare (22) is £1.87 whereas Willem Geubbels (16)  and Amine Gouiri (18) cost £1.69 and £1.65 respectively.

Those traders who have been on the platform longer than I have will remember the Zlatan crash after his Europa League injury. Perhaps the market is still over-reacting to this fall? Maybe one day it will be more obvious when a player becomes old; or when a player is no longer considered young.

Until then, I am certain that older players will return a significant amount of PB dividends. Inevitably, this will lead to capital appreciation. I strongly believe as the season progresses there will be a fundamental shift from non-playing and expensive youngsters to the best older and cheaper PB players.

Hopefully, this blog gives you some ideas who these players may be. Or at least, makes you aware of the profit potential in RoE.

Simulation Methodology and Bristol Rovers Shirt Giveaway

Dividend Estimates For the 2018/2019 Season League Games 

Methodology

First, we collected fixture and results data for the Performance Buzz eligible leagues for the past 3 seasons. In cases where there were teams that will be playing in the top division this year that haven’t played in the top division for all 3 of the previous seasons, we replaced relegated teams with these teams accordingly.

Next, we collected two years of performance data for every player to have played in the top 5 leagues over the last 2 seasons.  We also cross-referenced this data with each player's actual PB scores last season as well some data provided to us by @BuzzingPaul.

Then we estimated each player's expected score and variability for each game over the 3 seasons of fixtures based on their PB average, the 2 seasons of performance data (weighted towards last season), fixture results, their current club and the variability of scores last season.

Finally, we used this data to simulate each gameday for the last 3 seasons 100 times and recorded the winners of each game day every time as well as whether this was a single, double or triple matchday. We then aggregated these results to find each player's average dividend returns per season across the simulations.

Results

The results will be added to our Premium Member’s Blog at 2 PM Sunday, July 29.

Membership Sign up

We are currently running 3 membership options you can sign up for each by clicking their respective links:

Limited Membership (Free)

Premium Membership (£6.48 per month)

Annual Premium Membership (£60 a year)

Bristol Rovers Shirt 18/19 Giveaway

The winner of this giveaway will win a choice of either a Bristol Rovers Home or Away Shirt for the 2018/19 season. In order to participate in this promotion and therefore be eligible to win the shirt, you must agree to all the below terms and conditions.

1.     Entry Deadline: The deadline to have met all the entry requirements below is Sunday, July 28 at Midday BST.

2.     Eligibility: this competition is only open to all United Kingdom residents who are aged 18 years old or over. Please note only 1 entry is allowed per person.

3.     Entry Requirements:

1.     Retweet our Twitter post that outlines this competition.

2.     Reply to the tweet commenting on whether you would like to receive a “Home” or “Away” shirt along with the hashtag #EdgePBSim

3.     Sign up to be a Free or Premium Member of FootballIndexEdge.com

4.      Winner Selection: We will randomly select one of the qualifying entries and contact them to confirm they have met all 3 of the requirements above. If they haven't another winner will be selected at random. The winner will be contacted on Twitter and will need to confirm their Postal address for the prize to be sent to as well as confirming they meet all the criteria detailed above within 24 hours of receiving the message.  The winner will also need to agree being mentioned on Twitter as the winner and to tweet a picture of the prize upon receipt.

5. The Prize: The prize will be selected as either a Home or Away Bristol Rovers Shirt for the 18/19 season. We will make every reasonable effort to acquire this prize after the winner selects their preffered size up to the RRP of £39. We will also only be liable to Postage & Packaging if your address is eligible for standard UK delivery.

6. We reserve the right to make reasonable amendments to this competition as we see fit.

2017-18 Season Review: The Best Performance Buzz Clubs

With the transfer window now in full flow and speculation rife on Twitter for which moves justify price increases, we decided to take a look at which clubs had the best Performance Buzz scores last year.

TOP 10 PERFORMANCE BUZZ TEAMS (MINIMUM 20 SCORES)

Screen Shot 2018-06-05 at 14.23.24.png

TOP 10 PERFORMANCE BUZZ TEAMS (GOALKEEPERS & DEFENDERS) MINIMUM 20 SCORES

Screen Shot 2018-06-05 at 14.24.51.png

TOP 10 PERFORMANCE BUZZ TEAMS (MIDFIELDERS) MINIMUM 20 SCORES

Screen Shot 2018-06-05 at 14.26.07.png

TOP 10 PERFORMANCE BUZZ TEAMS (FORWARDS) MINIMUM 20 SCORES

Screen Shot 2018-06-05 at 14.27.20.png

Premium Members Performance Buzz Club Averages Graph

Our premium graph allows you to play with several filters that allow you to get a better idea of the PB scores you should expect from new signings. The position type filter will be particularly important to further filter the scores to be closer to player in question.

Screen Shot 2018-06-04 at 19.14.04.png

To view the graph and play with the filters: CLICK HERE

 

Player International Stats for the Last 3 Seasons!

Aim:

To provide the best stats in order to help you to identify the leading international players that are likely to feature at this year's World Cup.

Methodology:

Firstly using a combination of opinion and data, we identified the likely starting 11 for each of the 32 teams at the World Cup. Special shout out to Jay Hall who had already completed this stage for us. 

Next, we gathered data on each outfield player in the likely starting 11, for each international game they have played in over the last 3 seasons. As Opta did not have individual game data for this period we had to use an alternative data provider for this.

Then, as the data slightly differs from the data that Opta provides we built an estimation model for the alternative data provider based on known scores to predict PB scores for each game. We tested this for 383 PB scores and found that the model can explain over 90% of the variability in PB scores (see graph).

Screen Shot 2018-03-28 at 16.38.35.png

Finally, we applied this model to each player's stats to get an estimated PB score for each game. 

Results:

With all the data we will be providing our members with key stats on every likely world cup starter including:

  • Estimated Average International Score
  • Estimated StdDev between scores
  • Games Played
  • Goals Scores
  • Distribution of Estimated Scores

We will be releasing these results on a team by team basis as we approach the World Cup starting this week! Keep up to date with our twitter account to ensure you don't miss out!

Premium Members will be given priority over all of these stats. If you are still not a premium member and would like access to these stats as well as countless other benefits, SIGN UP BY CLICKING HERE

Copy of event (2).jpg

 

On occasion, we may release some data to our free members (albeit in these cases it will be after it is released to premium members). If you are still not a free member you can SIGN UP BY CLICKING HERE

 

 

A European review

– by DNA (@goldthornwolf)

What an exciting time to be a Football Index trader at the moment! We’ve seen unprecedented growth period recently for various reasons including the announcement of new territories due to join the platform in Sweden, Canada & Ireland, a recent bonus incentive for those that attended the trader meet in London with special guest speaker Lex Van Dam saw literally thousands of pounds pumped into the platform. With both the Champions & Europa Leagues resuming after the winter break and almost inevitably a lot of money went into players still involved in these competitions.

It’s no wonder when you consider Football index have confirmed that match day pay-outs will be treble (top defenders/midfielders/forwards 12p + 6p Star man) for the quarterfinals onwards – could prove quite lucrative when only a handful of teams will be playing on these match days.

With a crucial week coming up, let's catch up on recent events in both competitions.

Europa League

Round of 32 Aggregate results

Lokomotiv Moscow 4-2 Nice

Atletico Madrid 5-1 FC Copenhagen

Dynamo Kiev 1-1 AEK Athens * Dynamo Kiev win on away goals

Lazio 5- 2 Steaua Bucharest

RB Leipzig 3-3 Napoli * RB Leipzig win on away goals

Sporting Lisbon 6-4 FC Astana

Viktoria Plzen 3-1 Partizan Belgrade

Villarreal 1-4 Lyon

Zenit St Petersburg 3-1 Celtic

Arsenal 4-2 Östersunds FK

Atalanta 3-4 Borussia Dortmund

Athletic Bilbao 4-3 Spartak Moscow

FC Red Bull Salzburg 4-3 Real Sociedad

AC Milan 4-0 Ludogorets Razgrad

Sporting Braga 1-3 Marseille

CSKA Moscow 1-0 Red Star Belgrade

In perhaps the tie of the round, Serie A leaders were knocked out despite winning 2-0 on the night at RB Leipzig. A 3-1 home defeat in the first leg left Napoli on the brink of elimination, goals from Piotr Zielinski and Lorenzo Insigne setting up a grandstand finish in the return fixture. But it was not to be, Timo Werner's brace in the first leg proving enough to see RB Leipzig into the last 16 of the Europa League in what is the club's maiden European campaign.

There was better news for Napoli's Serie A rivals, Lazio, though, as an Immobile treble - his third of the season - saw them emphatically overturn a first-leg deficit against Romanian side Steaua Bucharest. Lazio had suffered a surprise 1-0 loss in the first leg in Romania, but the Serie A side came from behind to secure a comfortable 5-1 aggregate victory. Ciro Immobile scored twice before half-time to reach 30 goals in all competitions for the season, with Bastos also on target as Simone Inzaghi's men routed Steaua 5-0 at the Stadio Olimpico. Felipe Anderson struck after the interval to add to a comprehensive Lazio win, guaranteeing Serie A will be represented in Friday's last-16 draw, with Immobile wrapping up his hat-trick winning 18p in dividends as top forward and star man.

Lokomotiv Moscow joined city rivals CSKA in the last 16 with a 1-0 win over Nice ensuring a 4-2 aggregate victory, Igor Denisov's well-taken finish deciding the encounter in the Russian capital.

A 3-1 win for Sporting CP in their first leg against Astana gave the Portuguese side a big advantage, which Bas Dost added to with an early header - his 10th aerial goal of the campaign. Although Astana equalised, Bruno Fernandes struck a brace in a thrilling 3-3 draw that ensured Sporting went through with a 6-4 aggregate victory. Those 2 goals for Fernandes secured 12p dividends as top midfielder.

Arsenal survived a huge scare to keep their Europa League campaign alive, progressing to the last 16 with a 4-2 aggregate win over Ostersunds despite a 2-1 loss at home. The Gunners cruised to a 3-0 win in the first leg in Sweden last week but found themselves 2-0 down at half-time of the return fixture at the Emirates Stadium. A strike from Sead Kolasinac early in the second half eased some of the nerves in north London.

AC Milan went through after beating Ludogorets 1-0 on the night with a Fabio Borini goal, sending them into the next round on a 4-0 aggregate score. This clean sheet helping Ricardo Rodriguez win 12p dividends as top defender.

Favourites Atletico Madrid cruised through with a 1-0 win, easing past Copenhagen. Kevin Gameiro opened the scoring with a spectacular drive from range just seven minutes in. Main man Griezzman was rested due to the commanding lead from the first leg.

Spanish teams have a brilliant record in this competition, but 2015-16 semi-finalists Villarreal were knocked out by Lyon. The Ligue 1 side led 3-1 after the first leg at home and when Jaume Costa was dismissed, Bertrand Traore then on target to earn a 1-0 win and send Lyon through.

Borussia Dortmund needed an 83rd-minute goal from Marcel Schmelzer to ensure they did not go out on away goals to Atalanta. Having scored twice in a 3-2 loss in Germany, Atalanta had hoped Rafael Toloi's early strike would be enough only for Schmelzer to save Dortmund late on.

Zenit overturned Celtic's slim first-leg lead to go through 3-1 on aggregate, with former Chelsea defender Branislav Ivanovic scoring one and making another. Last season's semi-finalists Lyon won 1-0 at Villarreal to go through 4-1 on aggregate.

RB Salzburg's 2-1 victory over Real Sociedad was enough for them to continue in the competition and though Marseille lost 1-0 to Braga, they marched on nevertheless having held a 3-0 lead from the first meeting.

Elsewhere, goals from Michael Krmencik and Ales Cermak earned Viktoria Plzen a 2-0 win and 3-1 aggregate success against Partizan Belgrade, while Dynamo Kiev progressed on away goals after a 0-0 draw with AEK Athens.

Round of 16 Draw – First Leg

Football Index Double Match Day Payouts

Top Defender 8p / Top Mid 8p / Top Forward 8p / Star Player 4p

THURSDAY 8TH MARCH Odds Home Draw Away

Atlético Madrid 18:00 Lokomotiv Moscow 2/9 4/1 10/1

Borussia Dortmund 18:00 FC Red Bull Salzburg 4/9 7/2 11/2

CSKA Moscow 18:00 Lyon 8/5 11/5 17/10

AC Milan 18:00 Arsenal 6/5 23/10 21/10

Lazio 20:05 Dynamo Kiev 2/5 10/3 11/2

Marseille 20:05 Athletic Bilbao 4/5 12/5 3/1

RB Leipzig 20:05 Zenit St Petersburg 8/13 13/5 7/2

Sporting Lisbon 20:05 Viktoria Plzen 4/11 16/5 13/2

 

Second Leg ties to be played 15th March

Outright Winner Odds

Atlético Madrid 9/4 Arsenal 5/1 Borussia Dortmund 6/1

Lazio 9/1 RB Leipzig 10/1 Lyon 12/1

Sporting Lisbon 12/1 Marseille 12/1 AC Milan 14/1

Athletic Bilbao 18/1 Zenit St Petersburg 33/1 FC Red Bull Salzburg 33/1

CSKA Moscow 33/1 Dynamo Kiev 50/1 Lokomotiv Moscow 90/1

Viktoria Plzen 90/1


 

Champions League

Round of 16 Second Leg ties

Odds Home Draw Away

TUESDAY 6TH MARCH

Liverpool 19:45 FC Porto Madrid (Agg 5-0) 4/9 16/5 5/1

Paris Saint Germain 19:45 Real Madrid (Agg 1-3) Evens 11/4 23/10

 

WEDNESDAY 7TH MARCH

Manchester City 19:45 FC Basel (Agg 4-0) 1/12 7/1 18/1

Tottenham Hotspur 19:45 Juventus (Agg 2-2) 11/10 11/5 23/10

 

TUESDAY 13TH MARCH

Manchester United 19:45 Sevilla (Agg 0-0) 8/13 13/5 7/2

Roma 19:45 Shakhtar Donetsk (Agg 1-2) 8/13 13/5 7/2

 

WEDNESDAY 14TH MARCH

Besiktas 17:00 Bayern Munich (Agg 0-5) 9/2 10/3 2/5

Barcelona 19:45 Chelsea (Agg 1-1) 2/5 10/3 5/1

 

Biggest news affecting this the 2nd leg ties will undoubtedly by Neymar’s injury sustained during a PSG league match versus Marseille, the Brazilian forward will miss the crucial match with Real Madrid. Already 3-1 down from the first leg, PSG have a massive task ahead of them to progress to the next round, Real’s indifferent form, however, will encourage PSG that the tie is not yet finished.

Manchester City (fav), Bayern Munich and Liverpool all have commanding leads from their 1st leg ties and may rest certain first-teamers for their 2nd leg tie as progression into the quarterfinals are all but secured.  Players from these clubs will be eligible for those attractive 12p treble match day payouts during the QF’s and it seems that traders have been quick to pounce.

There is 3 ties far from resolved. Manchester Utd v Sevilla, Tottenham v Juventus and Barcelona v Chelsea – the home teams all will be very confident of progressing to the Quarterfinals. Somewhat expect a lot of activity in players being bought and sold pending the results of these ties.

Roma will be looking to overturn the 2-1 result in the 1st leg against Shakhtar Donetsk, an impressive 4-2 win against league leaders Napoli leading up to this match will give them plenty of encouragement especially with 3 of the main men Under, Dzeko and Perotti all scoring.

With the conclusion of the 2nd leg ties, all eyes will be on the draw for the quarterfinals on March 16.

Outright Winner Odds

Manchester City 10/3 Barcelona 4/1 Bayern Munich 5/1

Real Madrid 11/2 Liverpool 9/1 PSG 10/1

Tottenham 14/1 Manchester Utd 18/1 Juventus 25/1

Chelsea 40/1 Roma 60/1 Shaktar Donetsk 100/1

Sevilla 100/1 Besiktas 250/1 Basel 500/1

Porto 500/1

Whatever happens this week, there will be increased trading on the platform no doubt – let us hope we are all on the right players to see some big gains! Good luck!

 

Premium Member PB Stats

We will be adding this article together with updated PB stats that focus on the remaining champions league games to the Member's Blog later today.