To estimate the impact that the new IPOs will have on the current top 200’s performance buzz dividends.
Firstly we assembled statistics on players who started at least 20 games last season, featured in the top 5 European Leagues & currently play for a team in top 5 leagues. This composed of: 532 Goalkeepers or Defenders, 471 Midfielders & 195 Forwards (roughly the number of players in each position we’d expect to play each game for the 98 league teams in the top 5 leagues).
We next used the statistics to assemble an expected average score for each of these players.
To measure the variability we gathered the average standard error of the estimated score model for each position type (ie the estimated score varied more from the actual score for more attacking players).
We then used last seasons league fixtures and simulated each game day 100 times and recorded the results of the PB winner in each position each time.
Finally, we viewed each player's total dividends and separated the players into 2 categories (Top 200 & Others). We then recorded the percentage of dividends paid out to current top 200 players in each position.
Summary of Results
We concluded as many suspected that the impact on each player is largely dependent on the position they play in.
Our results found that:
- Goalkeepers & Defenders already in the top 200 won approximately 38% of the Performance Buzz Dividends available for the Best Defender Dividend.
- Midfielders already in the top 200 won approximately 40% of the Performance Buzz Dividends available for the Best Midfielder Dividend.
- Forwards already in the top 200 won approximately 75% of the Performance Buzz Dividends available for the Best Forward Dividend.
This confirms that the market has been reacting rationally as a result of the double dividends/squad options update, with forwards moving away from the rest of the market as their expected PB dividends have increased by approximately 50%.
The simulation also helped us to identify what we believe are several undervalued individual players whose IPO’s are coming up and we will be sharing some of our top picks with our Premium members BEFORE they IPO via Email together with their key stats. We will also be sharing some of this information with our free members, however, this will likely be after they IPO.
We must stress that we will be doing more simulations and stats gatherings in the coming weeks on specific players and checking our website, emails and social media is the best way to stay on top of it all.
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