Last week we had the pleasure of being invited onto Football Index Guide's podcast. I'm sure 99% of you already are already familiar with his content but in case you aren't here are the links to the various mediums he releases his great content on:
What we Discussed
We discussed a variety of topics on the podcast and we thought it would be good to give you some market data on the topics we discussed.
How the Market has Changed this Season
The growth of the Amount of Money in the Index
In the podcast, we refer to the estimated amount of money in the Index doubling since the beginning of April 2018. We must stress this is a very rough estimate based on the assumption that prices have risen a penny over their IPO price for every 100 issued shares currently in the market. This graph shows both the daily and overall % growth in the market since the beginning of April.
Match Day Price Changes by Performance Buzz Scores and Season
We also discussed how match day prices this season haven't changed much when players haven't acheived a high score but have increased more when they have.
How Home Advantage and the Quality of Opposition Affect Performance Buzz
Home or Away Performance Buzz Dividends
Performance Buzz Averages by Opposition
Here are some Performance Buzz averages when playing against some of the best and worst teams when it comes to conceding Performance Buzz points. We also mentioned in the podcast how we have developed a model for estimating individual Performance Buzz Scores. We found from the model that the opposition and whether the game is due to be played at home or away combined is a greater predictor than the individual's Performance Buzz Average. Of course the best model that we use looks at all 3 variables.
The Best Performance Buzz Metric: Averages or Peak Scores
In the podcast, we debate our viewpoints on this, here are just a few of the graphs we use when evaluating a player's Performance Buzz credentials.
Performance Buzz Averages
This is a screenshot of the Performance Buzz Average graph that is available to all our Premium Members (Free 30 day trial is currently available for new members on both our Monthly and Yearly memberships and you can cancel at any time!). You can also view the distribution of all their Performance Buzz scores by hovering over their averages.
In the podcast, we mention how looking at Performance Buzz averages can be especially helpful when choosing players for Single Performance Buzz Matchdays. We have made a free to view Fixture Calendar for any traders who want to research fixtures well in advance: footballindexedge.com/football-index-fixtures/
What are Standard Deviations and How Can They be Useful When Interpreting Performance Buzz Scores?
This is probably the stats question we get asked most so here is our answer!
It’s a measure of how much each player’s scores vary away from their average score. Higher is generally better as it means they are more likely to occasionally score a much higher score than they normally do. One way I like to look at is if you add their average to their STDDEV you will get a score they will likely score over in roughly 1 in 6 games. If you add their average to 2 times their STDDEV you will get appropriately their highest score they will score in a season.
Performance Buzz Peak Scores
This is a screenshot of one of the Peak Score graphs we have available to our Premium Members.
We were asked about which trends we think we may see over the next few weeks in terms of the types of players which will see the largest price increases. We discussed dual MB and PB players, penalty takers and Champions League and Europa League players as potential answers to this. The graph below shows the largest dividend winners since PB was introduced and splits their returns between their MB and PB returns.