Football Index Share Split Mechanics Scenario Planning

What is Happening?

This evening at 7 PM Football Index will be announcing the mechanics of the share split that will be taking place on Football Index in 8 days. This will include the number that they will be dividing player prices by (and the number they will be multiplying the shares that you own in each player in your portfolio by). There is growing speculation that this will also include a dividend increase so we thought we’d put together an article so you prepared for as many potential scenarios which may occur at 7 PM. Please note Football Index is also suspending the market at 7 PM for half an hour so you will have a chance to revisit the article then.

Scenario 1: A Rise in Matchday Dividends

On our website, we have loads of dashboards that can be used to help identify the best players for matchday dividends. Below is the Master Stats Table, but the Peak Score and Price vs Matchday Average Score Dashboards are also worth checking out if this happens. Once you have a player in mind the Player Dashboard is our most in-depth tool for analysing specific players.

Scenario 2: A Rise in Media Dividends

Media Score Analysis is the dashboard for conducting analysis on historic player media scores on Football Index. Select a player on the Media Scores by Day and Media Stats Table to activate the player media score analysis graph.

What are Expected Media Dividends?

Expected Media Dividends are an estimate of how much each player has won in dividends based on all their historic media scores in the filtered date range. For example, if a player obtains a media score of 700 on a given day their expected media dividend return would be 2p for that date as that is approximately the average return from a score of that size. We do this to help clean the data and help you to assess which players have been lucky/unlucky in the media dividends they have received in the filtered date range you select.

Scenario 3: Media Dividends Opened up to the Squad

This is a scenario we have to admit there is limited data available on. However, you can use the price filter on the Media Analysis dashboard above to see which player’s who aren’t currently in the top 200 have historically received media points. It is then just a matter of whether you think they still have or potentially will in the future some media attention.

Scenario 4: An Increase to Goal and Assist Dividends

Below is a new goal and assists dashboard. It also includes each player’s expected goals (xG) and assists (xA). This is the number of goals that you’d expect them to have for the chances and passes they have had/made in games. It is usually a more accurate predictor of future goals and assists than historic goals and assists.

Please note we have excluded some player’s who have fewer than 5 goals or assists.

Conclusion

The announcement will likely be a combination of the scenarios above. so be sure to study any of the dashboards that you think are relevant to the announcement!

Good luck!

UPDATE!!!!

Here’s how the Top 5 Leagues IN Play Dividends Table Looks Like with the new Dividend Structure!


Forwards Dashboard

With Football Index announcing yesterday that they are introducing a 2p goal dividend and 1p assist dividend for forwards we took a look at what each forward in the top 5 leagues dividends would have been so far in league games. We also took a look at their expected goals and assists as this is usually a better predictor of future goals and assists. Expected goals is explained in the video below.


The Dashboard

Goalkeeper Dashboard

Goalkeeper Dividends!

In case you haven’t seen yet Goalkeepers can now win dividends for the first 30 days you own them for the following actions:

  • 2p per clean sheet

  • 3p per goal

  • 1p per assist

The following shows the amount of dividends each goalkeeper would have earned so far this season (league games only). Of course you also have to consider that in order to have earned these dividends you would had to re-buy every 30 days.

The Dashboard

The Last 12 Months on Football Index: Price Rises, Dividends and ROI%

It is now over a year since we started recording price, dividend and Performance data on the Football Index platform. The last 12 months have been an incredible growth period for the platform and this has been reflected in player's prices. We have combined the price changes with the dividends over the period to find each player's ROI over the period. We have then studied the data to try and find any useful trends in identifying player's that have been the best investments over the last year. For this article, we have only looked at the 200 players who were tradable on 26/08/17.

ROI by Player

Unsurprisingly Mohamed Salah leads the way after his sensational debut season for Liverpool, subsequently rising from £1.91 at the start of the period to £10.28 now, whilst picking up £3.64 in dividends along the way. Memphis Depay follows in second place with an astonishing ROI of 561%, thus showing the incredible profits that are possible if you are able to pick out a "PB gem". On the flip side, Zlatan and Rooney would have been the worst investments for the last 12 months after the ageing pair decided to head to the MLS.

ROI Box Plots

The box plots allow you to see the distribution of returns across the period. The overall average ROI of 96% and median of 73% show the incredible returns that have been possible on Football Index this year. The by position box plot shows similar average returns across the positions ranging from 90% to 99%. It is comforting to see the top 5 clubs in terms of ROI consists of Champions League finalists and league winners. 

ROI by PB Average

The graph below shows the strong correlation between PB averages and ROI%. We hope that those who spent hours studying our PB average graphs have been richly rewarded!

ROI by Price

We were unable to find a statistically significant correlation between ROI% and player's prices at the start of the period. This suggests that traders should look for opportunities across the market and not limit themselves to players in a certain price bracket.

Price change vs Dividends

Traders often speak about targeting dividends or capital appreciation as if they are somehow mutually exclusive. The graph below shows the opposite is the case with player's typically rising by an extra 1.72p in price for every 1p in dividends they earned across the period.

Performance Buzz Dividend Predictions 2018/2019

About

We have now completed our Performance Buzz simulations for the season ahead. However, one problem with only using historical data for these predictions is that it will always at least partially fail to take into account certain variables such as a change in manager. It is also important to take into account when purchasing players other traders opinions on who will do well, as this will likely have a large bearing on price changes over the next month or so. We decided to assemble 8 of the most experienced traders in the Football Index community, equipped them with a wealth of player data and asked them for their predictions on how much each player is going to earn in dividends across the season. We suggested a total of £60 for the total of all predictions. You can also find below some stats to help you make your own predictions.

The predictors

FOOTBALL INDEX GUIDE

Twitter: @_FIGuide

The man who needs no introduction! “The FIG” started trading in January 2016 and has made incredible profits ever since. Last year he started creating helpful YouTube videos that help both novice and experienced traders alike.  He also runs a weekly podcast where each episode he is joined by either an experienced trader, football expert or even someone from Football Index HQ.

FOOTBALL INDEX SOTD

Twitter: @footballindexsd

Runs one of the largest and most active Twitter accounts in the Football Index community. SOTD, a statistician by trade, also started trading in Jan 2016 and can now boast profits of over £85,000. On FootballIndexEdge.com he brings his statistical expertise in running complex models and simulations and applies these techniques to the Football Stock market.

FOOTBALL INDEX RC

Twitter: @FootballIndexRC

Another person who made a Football Index Twitter account back in the days before it was a rite of passage for every new user. RC, widely regarded as one of the funniest and most helpful accounts in the FI community, announced a couple of months ago that he will be cutting back on the Index. However, a glance at his twitter page would suggest otherwise with him now tweeting more than ever!

SG

Twitter: @sigaskell

One of 3 traders on the panel with a portfolio worth over £100,000! SG is renowned for his “all in” approach to trading when he spots the right opportunity on a player. However, he has decided that he wants to spread his portfolio for the start of the season and get ready to act on the players that shine from a Performance Buzz perspective early in the season.  

ROSS DYER

Twitter: @DyerMarzio

One of the largest Football Index traders on the platform and has been for as long as we can remember. Dominated the now defunct Trader of the Month Competition, so much so that Football Index had to create a new rule to stop him winning every month! Like every good trader is adaptable, with him now boasting a portfolio of talented youngsters but he’ll be quick to tell you he “knows what he’s looking for in PB players”.

BUZZING PAUL

Twitter: @BuzzingPaul

Joining in October 2017, Paul was the last of our experts to join Football Index. An accountant by day he was quick to bring his number-crunching prowess to the Football Index community. He now tweets daily Performance Buzz predictions, snippets of Performance Buzz data and recently posted an article on our Blog.

FOOTBALL INDEX AS

Twitter: @FootballIndexAS

AS started trading in May 2017 and almost immediately established himself as one of the mainstays of the Football Index community. That summer AS provided traders with their first real taste of player data ahead of the launch of Performance Buzz. Renowned for his excel skills you can now find him tweeting about Performance Buzz dividend returns as well as informing you on which players are due to be IPO’d the following day.  

FOOTBALL INDEX BUZZ

Twitter: FootballindexLM

Another trader who has been creating Football Index content for as long as I can remember. His twitter feed is filled with stats, polls and insights from one of the most experienced members of the Football Index community. He writes regular blogs for Football Index, 90MAAT and has recently started a Football Index newsletter together with @footyindexLDN and @_FIGuide.

The results

Average predictions

These results show the average dividend across the predictions. Hover to view each traders prediction.

Maximum Prediction

These results take the highest prediction across the traders estimates.Hover to view each traders prediction.

Add your Own predictions

Want an excel file to do your own predictions like the one show below? Email info@footballindexedge.com to receive your copy. If you send your predictions back by the end of August we will add them to the dashboards. We have also added below a (desktop only) dashboard that may help when making your predictions.

Desktop Only dashboard