13/11 Checklist & This Seasons Simulation Results Methodology

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Our Pick

A little nervous to say anyone here baring in mind our last 2 have been Paulinho & Jorginho...

But we'll give it one more go! So our pick today is Ihlas Bebou. Cheap IPO price, Forward and lots of hype surrounding him in Germany at the moment. Check out this article that was published on the Bundesliga website last week: 

http://www.bundesliga.com/en/news/Bundesliga/Ihlas-bebou-hannover-ready-to-battle-rb-leipzig-463452.jsp

Performance Buzz Simulation 

Objective: We set out to see if we could use each player's average PB score this season and the variability in their scores combined with the fixture data to estimate each player's Performance Buzz dividends so far this season.

We used this data to simulate each gameday so far this season 100 times and recorded the winners of each gameday every time. We then aggregated these results to find each player's average dividend. This is the model's expectations as to how much each player would have paid out in dividends so far in the games they've played this season in which they were eligible to win Performance Buzz. 

This will be useful to help identify the players who have been lucky to win a performance buzz so far this season (perhaps he happened to have his best day on a day others flopped). On the flip side, it will help identify the player's who have yet to win as much as their performance buzz scores so far deserve.

Results Information:

5 pm: Results will be added to the premium members blog.

7 pm: The results will be emailed out to our free members.

8 pm: The results will be circulated on Twitter.

Best of luck trading today,

Football Index Edge