17/11 to 30/11 Simulation

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the PB winners for the rest of November.

METHODOLOGY

·  Collected data on all PB scores so far this season.

·  For players with 5 or more scores, we calculated each player’s average score and variability (standard deviation).

·  For players with less than 5 scores, we have estimated using a collection of data from various sources and applied a position adjustment calculated from our PB database.

·  Compiled the remaining fixtures in November and adjusted each players expected score based on the difficulty of each game (as per our expected score model).

·  Simulated each game day 100 times and recorded the results of the PB winner in each position each time.

·  Noted total dividends and wins for each player in November and ranked them for each position.

Please note that we have only included estimated scores for players who were promoted up to and including Wednesday 15th November. We expect that our simulations will become more accurate as more players get promoted. We will also be able to use actual scores for more players in future simulations.

RESULTS

Results show the top 20 expected payouts for the Best Player, Goalkeeper/ Defender, Midfielder & Forward PB Dividend. They show each player's expected wins and payouts for the rest of November. Please bear in mind that teams only have typically between 2-4 games left in November hence the low expected payouts. To put these results into context Barcelona have 4 games left in November. This translates to Messi being expected to win the best player dividend on 10% of his match days this month and 16.25% of the best forward dividends on average.

 

Best Player

Overall Nov Sim.jpg

Goalkeeper and Defender

Def Sim Nov.jpg

Midfielder

Nov Sim Mid.jpg

Forward

Forward Nov Sim.jpg