4/12 IPO Stats & Top 200 MB Analysis

IPO Stats

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Comments

Noone who stands out as being of significant value today. Arguments can be made for buying Wagner and Khedira but depends on your opinion on whether players are likely to be able to fall much from their IPO price.

Effects on the Top 200 media buzz only on transfer rumours

We took 11 players with potential transfer speculation whose value was likely affected by the top 200 qualifying for media buzz only and displayed value from 2 weeks before IPO introduction until now. It was thought at first that high IPOs would be detrimental to the price of these players. “If they aren't in the top 200 they are worthless” and “Low transfers won’t be tradable anymore”  were two regular statements heard.

Generally, this has turned out not to be true thus far and in some ways has strengthened the opportunity in these players. Players like Danny Rose and Riyad Mahrez have thrived, their gradual security in the top 200, suddenly causing a huge spike as they become the possible goto low priced media buzz winners over the transfer window. We then began to see this with other players, such as Daniel Sturridge and Emre Can, and more recently slowly increasing are Toby and Willian. It seems that there is value below that top 200 in terms of transfers speculation and once they firmly place themselves in there, there is a huge opportunity for players to grow. 

Whilst some of the players have increased by more, the trend line in the graph below shows an average price increase of 0.3% per day across the time period for the 11 players.

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Good luck trading today!