Simulation Details

Today's focus will be on the simulation results which we will be releasing at 1 PM today.

Methodology

  • We collected data on all the PB scores since each player was promoted to the Index. We then used this data to build a model which estimates each player’s expected score for each game from the following variables:
    • Each player’s average PB Score.
    • The difficulty level of the game (Average Points against that Opposition).
    • Home or Away game?
  • We next used every player’s estimated score for each game and their scores variance so far to run 100 simulations for the remaining fixtures in January. We noted the dividend pay-outs for each position as well as for the best overall player for every simulation.
  • Finally, we took the average of each player's estimated PB wins and dividends for January. 

Results will be released 1 PM tomorrow on the Member’s Blog

Comments on the Simulation

It is important to understand the methodology above as it can help to explain certain discrepancies in which players should be top. For example, a player who has typically scored lower than another may come out higher because he has easier games in January. A player may also do well because he has only played a couple of Performance Buzz games and had one very good game, so it is important to consider all of the player's stats when evaluating their Performance Buzz potential.

We hope you all find the simulation results helpful and we look forward to hearing your thoughts!

Good luck trading today!